OK, so I've been MIA. So what? You get what you paid for, right?
I won't rattle on about "ridin the Silky Pony", or Georgia/Russia, or even about the horrors of the Tangipahoa Animal Controls mass euthanasia.
Tonight, I want to be presidential.
Right now, the "conventional wisdom" is that the race is Obama's to lose. But I disagree.
I think it's McCain's to lose.
Let me explain.
First of a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation. Clinton's that is. Yes, the voters want something different, "change". But more than that they're fed up. They're mad as hell, and they're not going to take it anymore. (Apologies to Albert Brooks.)
We voters are sick and tired of being told what we're going to do by a bunch of elitists who know about as much about average American life as a fish knows about bicycles.
The Democrat voters didn't like being told of the "inevitability" of Sen. Clinton, and have instead picked the most unlikely potential nominee just out of sheer cussedness.
So we got Sen. Obama. And what did he immediately do? Start acting like he's already president, awaiting HIS coronation. BAAAD move, democrats.
First off, they left a pile of pissed off Clinton supporters in their wake. Remember that those you pass on the way to the top will likely see you again on your way down.
Second, it's not just democrats who are mad. Independents, republicans, and even us libertarians are a bit peeved with politics as usual. See Congressional approval rates for proof.
So when Obama presents himself as inevitable, we react like many of you did for Clinton. When told "you must..." our response is "like hell we do".
So, in a year when every fundamental favors democrats, Obama only led by a handful of points. Then he paraded His Imperial Inevitability (HII) on an overseas trip, and his lead disappeared. Surprisingly, McCain is about even.
But what does the future hold?
The Democratic Convention is just around the corner. Normally, these things are just four day infomercials for the candidate.
But those pissed off Clinton supporters that HII treated so badly, with racist accusations and suchlike, will be there. For the first time in many elections, it could come to a floor fight.
Clinton supporters feel, like many, that the media is in the tank for Obama. They know that events which would normally be covered might end up on the cutting room floor. Unless, of course, such event is so dramatic that it MUST be covered. There may be something big happening in the convention hall. And that would be good for McCain.
Outside, the above average number of demonstrators face the same media dilemma. They too, must be overly dramatic. Some want to recreate 1968, some openly talk of violence. This plays well to get media coverage, but will definitely cause moderates, independents and rural voters to shift away from Obama to McCain.
OK, I predict no real post convention bounce for HII. Maybe a week. But it's also possible he could fall some after. That would have McCain leading going into his convention, a highly unusual situation.
The republican convention should proceed smoothly inside, perhaps contrasting with a turbulent democrat one. TV viewers will be more inclined to vote for smooth running government over turmoil. Outside? After the democrat convention, the protesters will be east to paint as quacks and loons. Give them rope, they'll hang themselves politically.
With a republican post convention bounce, McCain will be leading not only popularly, but also electorally. Blue collar Michigan, Indiana, and especially Ohio will turn red, not wanting to be associated with the excesses seen on TV.
As Obama trails, his first, and most likely attack is racism. Not really McCain of course, but his staff, PR, and most importantly his voters. But that card has been played already, and he'll sound like the little Senator who cried Wolf.
Also, accusing voters of heinous things that they're NOT guilty of is not a good way to persuade them.
Then come the debates. Obama didn't do particularly well there in the primaries. He can deliver a really good prepared speech, but ain't worth a tinkers damn unscripted. That's why he wont do townhall meeting with McCain. Look for McCain to do well.
If McCain doesn't do something to blow it, I'm thinking he'll get about around 290 electoral votes.
And if I'm right, I look for news agencies to call me and pay a lot for face time since I was the first to call it. Righhhhht!