The Naked Emperor

04 June 2008

Hillary, the Gorilla

OK, just put your emotions on hold and turn your brains on. None of this is meant or is to be taken as sexist.

But right now, Hillary Clinton isn't just a female candidate. She's the 800 pound gorilla sitting in the room.

Last night, according to most reports, Obama clinched the nomination for the Democrats. As the first black to do so, that SHOULD have been the big news.

But it wasn't.

All eyes were on Clinton.

Will she concede? Will she just suspend her campaign? Will she file suit? Will she run as an Independent?

Neither Obama nor McCain are driving the election. Clinton is.

Now it's come out from some of her staffers that she'd "accept" the VP slot.

This is win/win for Clinton.

If it's offered, it will be herself that made the decision, not the presumptive nominee. She would be perceived as the stronger of the two. She wins.

If it isn't offered, many of her voters may stay home or vote McCain, leaving Obama high and dry. This could well lead to a McCain rout. She will be well positioned to "Told you so" for 2012. She wins.

For Obama, it's lose/lose. If he refuses her, he will piss off millions of loyal Clinton supporters, and probably lose. It may be a generation before another black is nominated.

If he choses her, his weakness is apparent. And it gets even worse. We all know that Clinton is a tough competitor. And a rival. Having her in his inner circle is like holding a wolf by the ears. And she'll bring her husband, a well known loose cannon. If he isn't in government, he can do whatever he likes. The only way to control him would be to give him a position. But would he accept a demotion? With his ego?

If we get even more conspiratorial, Would you want to be the one man between Clinton and her dearest ambition? If she's VP, she will literally be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. And Obama, being young and black would make a great martyr for the Democrats. I know he has to have this on his mind.

In other words she's in the driver's seat for the election.

Her actions, will determine the election. If she's the VP, the democrats win. If she just sits at home and stays quiet, they lose. She could also choose to run as an Independent. McCain would win, but Clinton's platform would control the Democrat's agenda for a generation.

For Democrats this is a case of too much of a good thing all at once.

Nomination the first black candidate is a victory for them. Having a Democrat woman control the election is a victory for them. But both at once will likely cost them the election.

The Naked Emperor


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